Population ageing

Summary

Driver description
Interactions within the Social Domain
Interactions with the Economy Domain

Interactions with the Technology Domain
Impacts on Mobility and Transport

Driver description

  • “Demographic ageing, i.e. the increase in the proportion of elderly people, is the result of significant economic, social and medical progress as well as public health policies. These have given Europeans the opportunity to live a longer life in relative comfort and security without precedent in our history. However, as was stressed by the Heads of State and Government at their informal Summit at Hampton Court in October 2005, it is also one of the main challenges that the European Union will have to face in the years to come.” (Ref: CO_0016)
  • “The age structure of the EU population will dramatically change in coming decades due to the dynamics of fertility, life expectancy and migration. The overall size of the population is projected to be slightly larger in 50 years time, but much older than it is now. The EU population is projected to increase (from 501 million in 2010) up to 2040 by almost 5%, when it will peak (at 526 million). Thereafter, a steady decline occurs and the population shrinks by nearly 2%. Nonetheless, according to the projections, the population in 2060 will be slightly higher than in 2010, at 517 million.” (Ref: CO_0050)
  • “While the EU population as a whole would be slightly larger in 2060 compared to 2010, there are wide differences in population trends until 2060 across Member States. Decreases of the total population are projected for about half of the EU Member States (BG, CZ, DE, EE, EL, LV, LT, HU, MT, PL, PT, RO and SK). For the other Member States (BE, DK, IE, ES, FR, IT, CY, LU, NL, AT, SI, FI, SE and UK) an increase is projected. The strongest population growth is projected to be found in Ireland (+46%), Luxembourg (+45%), Cyprus (+41%), the United Kingdom (+27%), Belgium (+24%) and Sweden (+23%), and the sharpest declines in Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania (-20%), Romania and Germany (both -19%).” (Ref: CO_0050)
  • “The highest shares of old age population are likely to be found in Eastern Germany, North-West of Spain, Italy and some parts of Finland. In Central and Eastern Europe the impacts of ageing will be delayed owing to their younger population and lower life expectancy. However, significant increases in the old age population are expected in the longer term in these regions.” (Ref: CO_0016)
  • “The age structure of the EU population is projected to change dramatically, as shown in the population pyramids presented below. The most numerous cohorts in 2010 are around 40 years old for men and women. Elderly people are projected to account for an increasing share of the population. At the same time, the middle of the age pyramid becomes smaller during the projection period due to below natural replacement fertility rates. As a consequence, the shape of the population pyramids gradually changes from pyramids to pillars. A similar development is projected for the euro area.” (Ref: CO_0050)
Figure 1‑3 Population by age groups and sex (absolute numbers)

CO_0050.jpg

Source: The 2012 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (Ref: CO_0050)
  • “Average life expectancy at birth in the EU is some six years higher for women than men. A girl born in 2008 is expected to live 82.4 years on average; a boy 76.4 years. For 65-year-olds, in 2008 there was an expectation of a further 20.7 years for women and 17.2 years for men.” (Ref: CO_0197)
  • “The population aged 15-64 will start to decline as of 2010 in the EU and, over the whole projection period, it will drop by 14 %. The population aged 65 and above will increase very markedly throughout the projection period. This group will almost double, rising from 87.5 million in 2010 to 152.6 million in 2060 in the EU. The number of older people (aged 80 years and above) is projected to increase by even more, almost tripling from 23.7 million in 2010 to 62.4 million in 2060.” (Ref: CO_0050)
  • “By 2060, the median age of the European population is projected to be more than 7 years higher than today and the number of people aged 65 or more is expected to represent 30% of the population as opposed to 17 % today.” (Ref: CO_0015)
Figure 1‑4 Projection of changes in the structure of the population by main age groups, EU27

Source: 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU-27 Member States (2008-2060) (Ref: CO_2050)
  • “Recent demographic projections show that in 2060 there will be only two active workers for every pensioner.” (Ref: CO_0015)
  • “Ageing has (favourable and less favourable) consequences on the environment through consumption patterns (housing and land use, transport, tourism, food and drugs, etc.) and sensitivity to environmental constraints (e.g. vulnerability to heat-related, illnesses and air pollution effects on respiratory systems). It is associated with population influxes into sunbelts, coastal areas and river valleys, in OECD countries and elsewhere. It has macroeconomic consequences as well, due to public spending and related services – such as pensions, health care, long-term care, education and unemployment transfers – and to age-related trade-offs between current consumption and saving for future generations (ECFIN, 2006). Ageing also affects labour force participation rates, standards of living, urban planning and mobility.” (Ref: CO_5009)
  • “A limited, but increasing, number of elderly acquire second homes and/or migrates to other countries, often southern member states with attractive climate and nature. Most spend autumn, winter and spring in the south and the summer in their native country.” (Ref: CO_0125)
  • “The population of European countries will continue to age rapidly and the working population will decrease dramatically in almost all nations. These demographic changes will have major implications not only in terms of economic growth, but also for social, cultural and political aspects, and obviously for migration patterns and trends.” (Ref:CO_5027)

Interactions within the Social Domain

Migration Flows

  • “A limited, but increasing, number of elderly acquire second homes and/or migrates to other countries, often southern member states with attractive climate and nature. Most spend autumn, winter and spring in the south and the summer in their native country.” (Ref: CO_0125)
  • “The population of European countries will continue to age rapidly and the working population will decrease dramatically in almost all nations. These demographic changes will have major implications not only in terms of economic growth, but also for social, cultural and political aspects, and obviously for migration patterns and trends.” (Ref: CO_5027)

With an ageing population, the number of disabled elderly people who need care would heavily increase in the EU27; furthermore the growing participation of women in the labour market may constrain the future supply of care provision within households and families. This evidence could boost the current migration flows of foreign people (both intra and inter EU) involved in care provision within families.

Households structure and distribution

As the population grows older within a smaller family unit an increasing number of Europeans will be growing old alone without the wider family support structures that still often exist today. In the future an increase in the number of one-person households can be expected.

Income structure and distribution

Generally, the average income from receiving a state pension is much lower compared to an average income earned by an economically active person. Therefore the ageing population is an important concern from a poverty perspective since aged individuals have lower income and higher health risks than that of other age groups.

  • “Retired people have a lower income than those that are in the workforce.” (Ref: CO_0125)

Car ownership

  • “A growing share of the elderly holds drivers license and have access to cars, reflecting that habits acquired as young is - partly - sustained in higher ages and leads to gradually increasing daily transport.” (Ref: CO_0125)
  • “Age affects travel patterns. U.S. residents born after 1978 drive significantly less than people of the same age did ten years earlier, as illustrated in the figure below. Average annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) was about 20% less in 2008 than in 2001 for each under 40 age group. This gives further evidence of changes in consumer preferences and lifestyles that are likely to reduce per capita VMT in the future. Figure below also illustrates the substantial declines in per capita VMT that occurs after 55 years of age. When people retire their per capita vehicle travel tends to decline and their demand for alternative modes and more accessible housing location tends to increase (AARP 2005). Although Baby Boomers are likely to drive more than previous retirees, they are unlikely to drive as much as they did during their working years.” (Ref: CO_5047)
Figure 1‑5 Average annual mileage by age

Source: The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be. Changing Trends And Their Implications For Transport Planning. (Ref: CO_5047)

Gender roles

A growing population will inevitably bring an additional burden to women to whom the family care of children and elderly is generally delegated.

  • “Especially in Southern Europe, recent aging demographic trends are accompanied by significant changes of household and family structures, characterized by an increase of single headed households and by the weakening of mutual family and community support networks. As the EU Green Paper on demographic change points out, families (and women within families) will not be able to face this caring challenge alone.” (Ref: CO_0088)

Urbanisation

  • “(...) the use of land in all European towns and cities will become increasingly important as demographic and environmental changes take place. Europe’s citizens are living longer and the demand for individual homes for single occupiers is also increasing.” (Ref: CO_0096)
  • “Demographic changes play an important role in the re-assessment of suburban areas. The ‘baby-boomers’, who were mainly involved in the first wave of suburbanisation in European cities during the 1960s and 1970s, are now 60 to 70 years old. This group often owns property designed for the requirements of a one-family household in terms of layout and location. In many cases, this is now inadequate for the next phase of life. This may especially be the case in areas with a poor social and physical infrastructure, where there is less opportunity for self-determined, non-car-orientated mobility. This holds even more true when one considers that it seems increasingly unlikely that public authorities will provide suburban areas with the same level of social and technical infrastructure as they did in the past.” (Ref: CO_0079)
  • “Older people are much more orientated towards their specific neighbourhood in fulfilling their day-today needs. Proximity to shops, medical care and other services are of particular importance. At the same time, the ‘empty nest’ syndrome (experienced after grown-up children have left the house) means higher costs per person and often a larger amount of work per person in looking after and maintaining the property. Therefore, as far as financial considerations allow, this group increasingly starts to look for innercity alternatives. However, for most people, re-location to the inner-city is only possible if their suburban home can be sold at an acceptable price: this might not be possible in certain suburban areas. These circumstances could lead to spatial segregation, with some suburban areas (i.e. those with higher density and better social and physical infrastructure) remaining high-valued neighbourhoods, and others losing value and status.” (Ref: CO_0079)
  • “As the trend towards an increasingly ageing population and smaller households continues, it may be anticipated that some slowing down of the movement from cities to suburbs will occur in the coming decades.” (Ref: CO_0028)

Planning

  • “The way that transport services are planned and delivered, the design and maintenance of the pedestrian environment and land use planning policies can all contribute significantly to the problems that disabled and older people face and can limit their ability to regain or retain independent daily living. Transport and land use planning can also play a major part in identifying and delivering solutions.” (Ref: CO_0013)
  • “Infrastructure design should not focus solely on technical efficiency and lowest cost. Designs for new roads and future road improvement programmes should at least recognise the inappropriateness of standards based on the abilities of a fit, young adult driver for members of an ageing society and meet the needs of all categories of road users (vehicle occupants, pedestrians, cyclists, motorised wheelchair users, etc.).” (Ref: CO_0013)
  • “The quality of footpath and pedestrian-crossing surfaces and the avoidance of abrupt changes in level and steep inclines are particularly important to older pedestrians. In addition to affecting ease of use, improvements in these areas will also yield safety benefits, allowing older people to shift their concentration from walking to responding to other road users’ actions.” (Ref: CO_0013)
  • “Transport systems have to be adjusted to the needs of an ageing society, taking account of understandability, readability and coherent signing systems. Transit and buffering times have to be designed for elderly people.” (Ref: CO_5006)
  • “Among the likely trends for Europe 2050 we envisage: proximity buses for elderly people and RMP[1]. Speed is not important because their value of time is small, but they want proximity to avoid walking. They may need external elevators or escalators on the street to overcome some heights.” (Ref: CO_5005)

[1] Reduced Mobility Persons

Tourist flows

  • “The ageing population and an increasing concern for health are likely to drive a growth in demand for health tourism product and spa services. There should also be growing interest in cultural tourism and specially designed programmes for older traveller.” (Ref: CO_0023)

Change of lifestyle and values

  • “Lifestyles are progressively changing in Europe, in part influenced by population ageing. Clear indications of increasing mobility and changing consumption patterns now exist in older population groups.” (Ref: CO_1023)
  • “(...) current statistics assume that transport outlay on the part of older groups will increase – senior citizens are more mobile than the generations before them. However, little attention is being given to the variety of circumstances and lifestyles that exist in old age just as at other stages of life.” (Ref: CO_5006)
  • “Over time the elderly gradually take up the same habits as the younger generations. As the younger, used to high mobility and travelling to other countries, gets older, and as the wealth and health conditions of the elderly population improves, the high mobility habit stays. Consequently an increasing daily mobility and frequent travelling activity can be seen for the wealthier and healthier segments of the elderly. This development is visible in the northern and western European countries, but not particularly visible in the south and eastern European countries with less tradition for travelling.” (Ref: CO_0125)

Health

  • “Ageing leads to increased demand for health and long-term care and rising health care expenditure.” (Ref: CO_0016)
  • “The available evidence indicates that the ageing of the population and the extended longevity of people can be expected to lead to increasing numbers of elderly with severe disability and in need of long-term care in some Member States.” (Ref: CO_2050)
  • “With an ageing population, the number of disabled elderly people who rely on informal care only would nearly double in the EU27, and increase by more than 120% in seven Member States: the Czech Republic, Ireland, Cyprus, Luxemburg, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.” (Ref: CO_2050)

Interactions with the Economy Domain

GDP trends

  • “Population dynamics will also be an important driver of consumption and production to 2030 in non-OECD countries. The trend towards ageing of the population, urbanisation and changing lifestyles will also influence the structure of consumption.” (Ref: CO_5009)
  • “World population growth is (...) progressively becoming a threat to growth, although in the past it has done most to bolster economic growth. Demographic transition to stable or shrinking populations alongside rising life ex­pectancy is dramatically changing the age structure of societies.” (Ref: CO_0235)
  • “Given the decline in labour supply, the annual average potential GDP growth rate for the EU27 is projected to decline from 2.4% in the period 2007 to 2020 to 1.3% in the period 2041-2060.” (Ref: CO_2050)
Figure 1‑6 Projected potential growth rates (annual average growth rates), EU aggregates

Source: Dealing with the impact of an ageing population in the EU (2009 Ageing Report) (Ref: CO_0073)
  • “The share of working age population is expected to be particularly low in several of the Finnish, Swedish and German regions. It is noteworthy that the magnitude of decline in the working age population shows significant variations. Around 40 regions will experience a decline of more than 10 % by 2020. Some regions in Bulgaria, Eastern Germany and Poland will be particularly hard hit, with a decline exceeding 25 % by 2020. These regions suffer from a combined effect of low fertility and high out-migration.” (Ref: CO_0016)
  • “The fiscal impact of ageing is projected to be substantial in almost all Member States, with effects becoming apparent already during the next decade. On the basis of current policies, age-related public expenditure is projected to increase on average by about 4 ¾ percentage points of GDP by 2060 in the EU – and by more than 5 percentage points in the euro area. Most of the projected increase in public spending over the period 2007-2060 will be on pensions (+2.4 p.p. of GDP), health care (+1.5 p.p. of GDP) and long-term care (+1.1 p.p. of GDP). Potential offsetting savings in public spending on education and unemployment benefits are likely to be very limited (-0.2 p.p. of GDP for each item).” (Ref: CO_2050)

Employment

  • “Demographic ageing is inevitable, but future changes in labour force and population at working age are not only determined by population dynamics. This gives European societies a variety of policy options including rising retirement age, higher labour force participation of women and a pro-active recruitment of migrant labour and skills.” (Ref: CO_6000)
  • “If successful, such policies will inevitably lead to much larger ethno-cultural and religious heterogeneity; higher labour force participation rates would require a radical departure from early retirement which in many EU countries has become a widespread phenomenon.” (Ref: CO_6000)

Regional differences in economics

  • “The population ageing process is not spatially uniform (...) as it also happens that large cities with obsolete economic bases are losing population while some competitively-orientated rural areas are increasingly able to attract retirees and the self-employed with a view to further developing their new “residential” economies.” (Ref: CO_1023)
  • “Remote rural regions show a stronger decline in population and a faster ageing process than rural regions close to a city.” (Ref: CO_0216)

Availability of public and private resources and investments in the transport sector

  • "A society with a higher ratio of older people will need to devote more public resources to pension payments, health care and nursing. Through its effect on public finances, ageing will put a strain on the supply and maintenance of transport infrastructure and set a limit for funding available to public transport." (Ref: CO_0015)
  • “An ageing population will have a strong upward impact on public spending for long term care. This is because frailty and disability rise sharply at older ages, especially amongst the very old (aged 80+) which will be the fastest growing segment of the population in the decades to come. (...) Public spending on long-term care is projected to double, increasing from 1.2% of GDP in 2007 to 2.3% of GDP in 2060 in the EU as a whole.” (Ref: CO_2050)
An ageing population requires also new investments in the transport sector with the purpose to keep elderly as active and independent as possible. This would imply the adoption of a new vehicle design for both the private and public transport sector, the provision of new services expressly tailored for the new needs, the adoption of technologies and devices easy to use given the reduced capabilities.

Energy availability and prices

  • “The elderly people's demand for energy services depend on the cost of such energy services. Older people have a lower income than the population in general, and the poor part the elderly population can be expected to be particular sensitive towards changes in energy prices.” (Ref: CO_0125)

Fiscal policy

  • “In some European countries, the current fiscal policy would be sustainable if there was no impact of ageing on public finances. It can thus contribute to cover part of the budgetary impact of ageing over the long term by reducing public debt and/or accumulating assets.” (Ref: CO_1004)
  • “In addition to the long-term budgetary impact of ageing, the current budgetary position and level of debt can also present a risk to public finance sustainability.” (Ref: CO_1004)
  • “The current level of gross debt, while declining, remains well above the reference value and the steady reduction of the debt ratio foreseen in the update is necessary. The European country strategy of putting longer-term concerns at the heart of fiscal policy, including by reducing debt, will undoubtedly alleviate sustainability risks and the ‘ageing fund law’ reinforces the political commitment by setting legally binding budgetary targets. Furthermore, recent measures aimed at increasing the effective retirement age and the employment ratio should contribute positively to sustainability. However, the current budgetary position may not be sufficient to cover fully the substantial increase in expenditure due to ageing populations, underlining the importance of maintaining large primary surpluses in the coming years.” (Ref: CO_1004)

Interactions with the Environment Domain

Pollution levels and emissions standards

  • “Population ageing and lower population growth could also have positive effects. Although other factors can be more important (e.g., consumption patterns, heating needs, urbanisation, living arrangements, productivity levels), a smaller population size can lead to a lower use of resources and reduced climate change. Ageing per se can also provide environmental gains to the extent that older individuals commute and consume less than younger individuals. In addition, the distinct income and savings patterns of older individuals can have indirect impli­cations for demand that result in lower environmental emissions.” (Ref: CO_0098)

Energy availability, production and consumption

  • “(...) the ageing of the population is not likely in itself to lead to significant environmental changes or pressures. The elderly generations are generally less mobile, take up new consumption patterns at a slower speed and consume on average the same or less resources than other groups in society. An important exception is the consumption of heat, gas and other fuels, where consumption per person is higher for the elderly than for the rest of the population. This is because elderly have smaller households (often one or two persons) with larger living space in m2 per inhabitant than younger groups leading to larger energy consumption.” (Ref: CO_0125)
  • “This hypothesis is supported by Eurostat household budget survey. The figure below presents the annual expenditure on electricity, gas and other fuels per adult in households with different age of the reference person. The annual expenditures to these energy products are largest for the group of households with the reference person above 60, though the level of consumption and level of difference between age groups vary across Europe.” (Ref: CO_0125)
Figure 1‑7 Annual household expenditure on electricity, gas and other fuels by age of reference person in selected countries. 2005
Source: Environment and Ageing (Ref: CO_0125)

Interactions with the Technology Domain

Technology development in general and innovation diffusion

  • “Although many older people today are unfamiliar with computer technology, this will change over the next two decades. All age groups will increasingly use of information and communication technology (ICT) in many different ways. New technology will be useful to older people, both in road infrastructure (electronic information signs, route information, navigation systems, etc) and in the public transport systems (smart card, trip planning services, automated information kiosks, etc), provided that the interface is appropriate.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “Equity and Accessibility for older people and disadvantaged communities is still an important issue and requires further investment and more efficient, speedier implementation of services. The advent of technology means that whole journeys can now be planned, but easy access of disabled, older and disadvantaged groups to this technology must also be considered. Research needs to consider providing this group with user friendly and low cost technologies which can ease the arrangement of such journeys.” (Ref: CO_0032)
  • “Europe’s changing demographic composition can also present an opportunity for the development of products and services geared to the needs of older people. New technologies can be developed to allow older people to stay autonomous and live longer in their own homes, to transform the delivery of care, inter alia personalizing services in response to patients’ unique needs and preferences.” (Ref: CO_0073)

New vehicle design

  • “Vehicles used for both public and private transport need to take greater account of the reduced capabilities of the increasing number of older, functionally disabled users and of their mobility aids. Design standards to enable these improvements already exist.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “Vehicle manufacturers need to improve the usability of vehicles for older people while maintaining vehicles’ crashworthiness. Facilitation of entry and exit, more user-friendly controls and displays and greater use of power-assisted devices are areas for improvement.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “Height of doorframe, width of door aperture, seat height, doorsill height and floor-well depth are design elements of a car that may encumber older drivers and passengers.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “Further design improvements advocated for older occupants are: Handhold and supports for assistance in entering and exiting the vehicle. While handles are often provided on the passenger’s doorframe, similar features are rarely provided for drivers. In the absence of this feature, drivers can get some support by grasping the door window frame or ledge.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “(...) automotive designers tend to be younger engineers with little personal experience of the problems and difficulties facing older drivers. These engineers need to think about how their grandparents would fare in the models they are designing (Huelke, 2001). The Ford Motor Company is addressing this issue by having their ergonomics engineers in training don a “third-age” suit, which makes the wearer feel physically 30 years older. The suit, which is akin to an astronaut’s outfit, mimics restricted body movement, inability to turn the head, stiff fingers and joints and increased sensitivity to glare (Roach, 2000).” (Ref: CO_0031)

Advanced Driving Devices

  • “The existence of sensor technology, radio frequency communication-based technology, ad-hoc communication, positioning technology and video image processing technology enables extra information on the driving environment to be collected and interpreted. Examples of such information are distance and/or speed from the vehicle ahead, lateral position of the vehicle on the lane and degree of visibility (e.g. day or night). Integrating them into invehicle driver support systems should decrease human errors, alert the driver as early as possible to an impending danger, warn him/her if there is no driver reaction to the first alert and actively assist or ultimately intervene in order to avert the accident or mitigate its consequences. Warnings should be given in visual or audible formats rather than vibrating format as elderly drivers are less sensitive to vibration.” (Ref: CO_0081)
  • “New technologies for improving vehicle control and safety should continue to evolve and be designed and evaluated in light of older drivers’ use patterns and functional abilities. Possible developments include navigational aids, in-vehicle collision warning systems, vision enhancement facilities and intelligent cruise control.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “In-vehicle emergency call (“Mayday”) systems promise to be of particular benefit to older people in terms both of increased personal security in the event of vehicle breakdown and earlier treatment of injury in the event of a crash. These systems need to be evaluated, and if deemed beneficial, promoted.” (Ref: CO_0031)

Information systems and Booking and Payment systems

  • “Information, ticketing and payment systems need to be easily understood and fare structures need to be fair and simple. Many current applications have been developed with capacities of the young internet generation in mind. There are clear opportunities for innovation and the creation of mobility-related services and products that specifically target the older generation and people with reduced mobility.” (Ref: CO_5048)

Impacts on Mobility and Transport

Higher transport demand for daily passenger transport

  • “In summary the motorized mobility of the elderly is lower than for the rest of the adult population, both with regards to daily transport and to tourist travels. As for the rest of the population the transport consumption of the elderly tends to increase - but at a lower level than the younger generations. An ageing of the population therefore must be expected to lead to lower transport consumption - and thus less pressure on the environment - but this effect may to some extent be weakened by the apparent increase in travelling by the wealthy and healthy segments of the elderly population in north-western Europe.” (Ref: CO_0125)
  • “Ageing will affect mobility through its impact on the labour market. In view of the contemporary ageing trends we can expect a higher rate of persons aged 60+ to remain active in the labour market. Assuming that a) labour market demand grows in the future and b) technological developments are not such that this increase in labour supply can be absorbed by teleworking thus having a neutral impact on mobility, we can expect ageing to generate a higher transport demand for daily passenger transport.” (Ref: CO_2041)

Reduced overall mobility with a different time profile

  • “The number of daily trips decreases at 65+. Of course this is closely related to a shrinking activity rate. However, surveys show that other reasons, such as the weather, darkness, barriers, missing assistance and lack of money also play a significant role.” (Ref: CO_0079)
  • “Older people have a different mobility profile during the course of a day. Whereas motorised traffic usually peaks between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. in the morning, and between 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. in the evening, the mobility pattern of the 60+ age group varies dramatically.” (Ref: CO_0079)

Reduced travelled distances and time

  • “Mobility patterns of older people are more focused on their particular neighbourhood. Two thirds of all trips made by older people are restricted to their respective neighbourhoods (mainly on foot). Therefore safe, clear, barrier-free routes, with opportunities to rest, are extremely important for ensuring the mobility of older people in all neighbourhoods and all areas of the city.” (Ref: CO_0079)
  • “A 1989 survey in West Germany (Kloas et al., 1993) illustrates the variability of travel habits by profession - the average person traveled 1.09 h per day, but university students and government employees spent much more time in motion (1.27 and 1.32 h, respectively). German pensioners were less mobile (0.94 h).” (Ref: CO_0001)

Increased demand for public transport

  • “Ageing results in more difficulties when driving, thus increasing reliance on collective (public) transport.” (Ref: CO_5048)
  • “Public transport and walking are of high importance for older people. Studies in Germany showed that mobility patterns change significantly at about the age of 65. Whereas personal mobility until the age of 55 is clearly dominated by motorised individual transport, this pattern changes dramatically thereafter, with the percentage of pedestrian traffic rising to 52% in the 85+ age group.” (Ref: CO_0079)
  • “One particularly poignant question concerns the degree to which the cutbacks in state pension provision will lead to a lower proportion of affluent seniors, and whether the older generation of the future will no longer be able to afford expensive mobility.” (Ref: CO_5006)
  • “Ageing results in more difficulties when driving, thus increasing reliance on commercial individual transport (taxis and paid drivers).” (Ref: CO_5048)

Rethinking public transport infrastructures

  • “The ageing of society will also have an impact on the characteristics of the transport solutions that will need to be offered for providing their mobility. Public transport vehicles and infrastructure will need to become more accessible. Pedestrian traffic lights will need to remain on the green stage for longer times to suit the possibilities of people with reduced mobility. This might reduce the capacity of the (urban) infrastructure for road traffic.” (Ref: CO_5048)
  • “Electric wheelchairs will need to be available at airports and railway stations. Toilets will need to be adapted and made more abundant. Airports, railways and maritime stations will need to have medical services available.” (Ref: CO_5048)

Need for more secure, safe and reliable transport services

  • “An ageing society will place more emphasis on the provision of transport services involving a high level of perceived security and reliability, and which feature appropriate solutions for users with reduced mobility.” (Ref: CO_0015)
  • “Compared to their share of the population, older people are overrepresented in casualties mainly when using public transport and as pedestrians. This reflects, of course, both their travel characteristics and their physical frailty.” (Ref: CO_0030)
  • “(...) the decline in capability of elderly drivers has contributed to the fact that - compared to middle aged drivers - elderly drivers are more often involved in traffic accidents, killed or seriously injured in accidents which involve other vehicles.” (Ref: CO_0081)

Changes to the driving infrastructures: development of car design and new support and control systems

  • “The ageing of society provides compelling reasons for improving vehicle design to meet the problems experienced by older people. Because ageing is associated with frailty and increased vulnerability to injury in the event of a crash, older transport users are likely to be the prime beneficiaries of continuing improvements to protect vehicle occupants.” (Ref: CO_0031)
  • “In-vehicle assistive technologies are available to address elderly drivers’ functional decline and avoidable behaviours, assist elderly drivers with their driving activities and increase road safety.” (Ref: CO_0081)

Scarcity of labour skills in the transport sector

  • "A scarcity of labour and skills may arise, further aggravating the shortage of skilled labour already experienced in some segments of the transport sector." (Ref: CO_0015)

Increasing demand for tourism

  • “Population ageing and the increasing well-being of the aged will increase flows even more. Residential tourism in Spain, Italy, Croatia is already booming, as Northern Europeans are purchasing second residences there: either retired people spending winters in the south, or liberal professionals spending 3 or 4 days per week thanks to their work flexibility.” (Ref: CO_5048)

Increase of demand for collective forms of long distance transport by road and air

  • “Although above a certain age people generally travel less than when they were younger, aged people of today tend to travel more than their parents did. This tendency is expected to continue and is reinforced by improved health, more travelling options and better foreign language skills." (Ref: CO_0015)
  • “Ageing affects the transport system through its impact on the structure and patterns of leisure activities. Contemporary older cohorts are more interested in travelling in their leisure time. This will result in an increase of demand for collective forms of transport by road and air.” (Ref: CO_2041)
  • “However, older people may show more variable habits in terms of mobility than in earlier times, possibly due to higher average income revenues and better health status of the elderly in the more distant future. In addition, even if collective public transport such as rail are not currently preferred by older people, this could change with significant improvements in terms of quality (comfort, accessibility, information) and adapted tariffs.” (Ref: CO_5048)

Increase of demand for road safety

  • “Factors that are likely to hinder further improvements in road safety are the rising number of vulnerable road users, (...) the growing number of elderly road users and a general increase in mobility demand, particularly in urban areas. All of these issues mean that road safety will remain a major challenge in the coming decade.” (Ref: CO_0266)