The Demographic Factor

The Demographic Factor

Projecting demographic developments in the next decades is one of the most daunting analytical tasks facing policy makers.  A high uncertainty surrounds the projections and this uncertainty grows the longer the projection period: substantial uncertainty remains, for example, on migration flows, the health status of the elderly or on the incidence of disability; therefore the projection results are strongly influenced by the underlying assumptions.

The demographic factor presented in the next pages is mainly derived from EUROPOP2010 population projection convergence scenario, released by Eurostat in April 2011.  It is based on assumptions on future trends in fertility, life expectancy and migration in the 27 EU countries and adopts a ‘convergence’ approach, this meaning that the key demographic determinants are assumed to converge over the very long-term[1]. (Ref: CO_0050)

Demographic drivers’ list:

[1] As far as fertility and mortality are concerned, it is assumed that they converge to that of the ‘forerunners’. Specifically, fertility rates are assumed to converge to levels achieved by Member States that are considered to be 'forerunners' in the demographic transition. Life expectancy increases are assumed to be greater for countries at lower levels of life expectancy and smaller for those at higher levels, thus following convergent trajectories. In each Member State, immigration and emigration flows assumed to converge, taking also into account the changes in the national age structures. (Ref: CO_0050)